A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has got something to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
